Special guests: Dean of Economics, Fudan University Professor Sun Lijian
when the global liquidity has not completely free from fear of the state, China's banking sector credit growth in March did show the scale of the flow of capital has begun to sign the real economy sector, China's power generation business recovery, a rebound in manufacturing confidence index, a narrowing trade export decline, and stock prices that people are released from the optimistic expectations of future economic and wealth effect increase the potential power consumption of such rescue effects, are supporting the Chinese economy end of the financial tsunami first to the second phase of the judge, and show the people of China the third stage in the future overall economic adjustment and recovery expectations and confidence. The Canton Fair actively participate in the phenomenon of overseas enterprises, overseas markets also shows the recovery of the Chinese economy can expect them to end as soon as possible to bring liquidity to increase the confidence of panic phase of the So, China's economy to pick up yet? Today's financial point of view, we will, and vice president of Fudan University, School of Economics with Professor Sun Lijian said recent economic data from the open to go.
interview outline:
1, 16, released by National Bureau of Statistics data show that a quarter of China's economy grew 6.1%, growth rate down 4.5 percentage points a year earlier , down 0.7 percentage points sequentially. The GDP data continue to fall show?
A: The first half of last year, the economy overheated, in the second half of rapid economic decline, therefore, a greater drop. Even so, compared with neighboring countries, China's economy stabilized current capacity is obvious.
2, in the first quarter, China's consumer price index fell 0.6% in March fell 1.2%, a decline of 0.3%. Whether the CPI continued to decline shows that we can not completely get rid of the shadow of deflation?
A: CPI is still down the chain, the release of the profitability of the market and not with the current economic recovery phenomena have been significantly improved, overcapacity remains a problem we need to be vigilant.
3, the first quarter, China's industrial producer prices fell 4.6%, but the ring than reduced monthly decline, which in March were down 0.3%. The PPI data also show?
A: The phenomenon of commodity prices improved significantly oversold, mainly in overseas markets have pricing power because the Government's capital investment and makes liquidity panic has greatly eased the pressure, coupled with emerging markets are impact of the crisis relatively limited, and their potential development of domestic market momentum remains strong, so prices stabilize pattern becomes obvious.
4, in the first quarter, China's total fixed asset investment grew 28.8%, 4.2 percentage points faster over the same period last year. We look at this data, we must see the recent People's Bank data: that is, following the January and February yuan of new loans to keep a record high, March of RMB loans continued to maintain high growth momentum and new loans again record amount of days. The first quarter of 4.58 trillion yuan of new loans, of the annual targets of 90%. Broad money supply increased by more than 25%. How fast growth of fixed asset investment and a rapid increase in new loans?
A: The last year has just launched the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, bank credit money is not the phenomenon is very obvious, when was 4 trillion in fiscal spending and this year added 18,000 billion investment in expenditure to specific directions, regional and project and bank loans as the Broncos lost, like reins, surging from. This phenomenon has occurred before. For a long time investment banks rely mainly on commercial lending channels to obtain a more stable yield spreads, credit risk management in the growing emphasis on the regulatory environment, there is no policy support, and no one will not easily lending, and the economic downturn, but also allow banks to suffer a lot of money brought back by the pressure of excess liquidity, so when government policies are clearly defined, bank loans and the simultaneous growth of fixed investment is very significant. Of course, not rule out that some funds through the In addition, even into the real sector of the economy, capital is flowing into those who are not dynamic and competitive enterprises, the result, and afterwards it is easy to generate new NPLs. In this sense, we still have to pay attention to the quality of loans. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has increased the regulatory capital purposes, the PBC has twice issued a repurchase of the central counting, it also underlined the leadership has been aware of the problem.
5, with the state Bureau of Statistics announced in March PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) index rebounded 4 consecutive months, has reached a level above 50, as well as the latest CPI, PPI data, in general to said, how do you think a quarter of China's economic performance? It shows that our economy has gradually stabilized now?
A: On the whole, government policies played a certain combination of the effects of boxing, especially the confidence index and the trend of the stock market have reflected the optimism we judge the economic situation. However, we should note that the data reflect the economic fundamentals behind the phenomenon began to pick up the government's actions contributed to blood transfusion, if once the market lacks the excitement, its power of hematopoietic function can not play, then, as the Chinese economy will still the surrounding market and highlights the structural problems of our own ups and downs of shock. Therefore, in this sense, we pay attention to whether the data in the second quarter to maintain good momentum now, even more than the current level. If China's own structural imbalances in the economy improved, increasing the government's rescue act can be implemented, then the Chinese economy this year to achieve the goal of preserving 8 is not much problem.
6, has been revealed that in March the country completed 286.729 billion kwh electricity, since October last year, a new high. It should be noted that some provinces in the first quarter of positive growth in consumption of electricity has been restored. China Southern Power Grid to the latest statistics also show that a quarter of five southern provinces have restored electricity markets, electricity consumption growth has slowed down significantly negative. Guizhou, Xinjiang, Hainan, Yunnan, Tibet, Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan provincial power grid electricity consumption is growing year on year. Strongly influenced by the financial crisis good news also came in Zhejiang Province, in March rose 0.51% in electricity sales, electricity consumption chain growth is 30%, of which small and medium consumption grew 22.48%. Reflect the economic situation as a leading indicator for power generation can accurately reflect the economic running of the situation, is considered to determine whether the warming of the next major economic indicator. Then for such data is not able to explain the problem?
A: The electricity is really a good benchmark, and we note that the local government policy priorities tilt effect more visible. Especially small and medium enterprises in Zhejiang Province by the local government to improve the investment environment in the various substantive support, once again played out of their strong market activity. This is the formation of hematopoietic function of a specific signal, is very gratifying.
7, National Development and Reform Commission announced the price of 13 monitoring data show that as of March 20,Discount UGG boots, China's production material prices declined overall. According to the 36 cities for the price monitoring, compared with the February 20, March steel prices drop significantly. Other products, gasoline prices declined slightly by 0.3% in February, fertilizer prices ebb, cement, bituminous coal prices continue to fall, timber prices in February was essentially flat. How to understand this set of data?
A: The price dropped a lot of factors of production is subject to the international markets, the first two years, excess liquidity caused by the global cost-based inflation is clear, therefore, this deleveraging of the liquidity crisis, was created out of a With the global economy to pick up significantly, the price dropping as the space will become increasingly narrow, even in the future to increase the intensity of this stage governments invested funds may once again bring resource-based inflation.
8, in fact, import and export most affected by the international financial crisis. General Administration of Customs recently announced the March foreign trade data, exports decline has narrowed over the month's trade surplus rebounded sharply in February, an increase of 4 percent over. Analysts expect China's export growth this year, quarter by quarter improvement trend will continue. How do you think?
A: At present, the phenomenon of improvement to do export some specific investigations, if it is because of the current increase in export orders from overseas brought about, then this is a very good sign, if this is due before funds accounts for the emergence of the export growth, then we can not be too optimistic about the global market to determine the function of hematopoietic recovery. In any case, a change in the current overseas market luxury consumer behavior over the last condition, the competitiveness of Chinese products will become more apparent, as long as we can overcome the rise of trade protectionism, export growth will continue to stabilize national economies with increasingly strengthened.
9, however, the Ministry of Finance website for a quarter of the financial revenue and expenditure. Statistics show that in the first quarter domestic revenue fell 8.3%; and the national fiscal expenditure is a substantial increase over last year 34.8%. The decline in national revenue, for the worse in terms of fiscal stimulus measures, right?
A: Because it is the liquidity crisis, that is, by its own energy to restore the market economy is not possible, only the direct intervention of government funding in order to avoid the risk of a hard landing for the economy. So, governments worldwide to implement tax cuts of a wave after wave, and the substantial economic rebound will take time, so the deterioration of the current financial situation of the common needs of the global commitment to challenge the government. However, our government revenue and expenditure in good condition as before the crisis, coupled with China's overall savings are more, so the fiscal deficit for the government to provide a very favorable space. Whether to end the current financial pressure on state government, the key depends on whether the bailout plan to bring the market a full recovery of hematopoietic function of the pattern. Here, the second extremely important to become a good money!
10, and then look at the real estate industry, National Bureau of Statistics, , an increase of 8.2%. Among them, the area of commercial housing sales up 8.7%; office sales area reduced by 13.1%; commercial business premises selling area increased by 7.8%. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Statistics to monitor the 70 cities housing sales price index, March, 70 cities nationwide housing sales price fell 1.3% expansion than in February fell 0.1 percentage points. In addition, the latest disclosure of the national housing climate index fell for 15 consecutive months, in March national housing climate index was 94.74 points, down 0.12 points more than in February, down 9.98 points over last year. After the adjustment of house prices some time ago, the property market turnover as a stage warmer trend is not already established?
A: Because the characteristics of liquidity panic the Government to actively rescue the world under the influence of increasing attenuation, coupled with changes in the market to rescue the market price trends, there is the tendency of interest rates will decline, the stock market driven by the gradual recovery of funds, the future deterioration of inflation expectations are on the rise, so, as the representative of the current real estate investment and consumption is gradually increasing, and this is where we see a lot of reasons to pick up property transactions. In the short term, because property prices are rising too high in some places early, so pay does not necessarily reflect the active head of the rise in the price, even in some areas but there will be a slight price drop, but the phenomenon of active buyers, a change before the investment type to buy a house only to buy or not to buy up the pattern. This led the recovery of other related industries in China is very beneficial. In addition, the recent recovery in the property market, and business houses have significantly increased demand relationship.
11, we also note that the Fifth Forum on China-US aviation information disclosed by the year 1 to 3 months, the whole industry over the previous year total passenger traffic increased 14.6%, with domestic passenger traffic 17.9%; February domestic cargo and mail traffic increased by 7.7%, 34 percentage points higher than in January. Eric Chinese Civil Aeronautics Board to determine the domestic aviation market began to pick up. Began to pick up the domestic aviation market, indicating that the response to this crisis, our Government has taken major policy decisions driven by domestic demand began to highlight the initial results?
A: The holiday effect, travel voucher, oil prices, business travel and other factors are the reasons for the increase in passenger traffic brought about. Therefore, the various entities in the economic recovery, economic sectors, will form a positive impact on other sectors, the Chinese economy this situation constitute a virtuous circle. If you continue, a full economic rebound around the corner.
12, has also been reported that the department may launch a new round of economic stimulus. Expected to favor the people's livelihood and consumption. Medicine, agriculture, new energy, real estate, banking, household appliances, automobiles, textiles, electronics information nine plate may benefit. Do you think it necessary to launch a new round of stimulus package? How do you analyze previously 4 trillion stimulus package?
A: Today we are a lot of investment is concentrated in infrastructure, capital equipment investment, the Mainland and rural areas there are still a lot of room for growth, so, you can use the new investment to absorb the production of productive investment in the past excess capacity caused by the inherent problems. However, deep-seated economic problems of excess capacity on a top ten industries can not be digested revitalization plan, in this sense, the new heavy spending, heavy industry, the livelihood of the revitalization plan is necessary. Of course, we have to prevent excessive credit, which has not been the real economy sector development take full advantage of the phenomenon. Otherwise, the risk of stagflation the accumulation of amplification will affect our economic recovery plan health implementation.
13, recently settled GEM, reflecting the development of innovative enterprises the Government has given much attention, so why choose? And our economic recovery is not linked to?
A: The starting point of the GEM in the midst of crisis to help SMEs solve their financing problems, which effectively speed up the upgrading of industrial structure in China and to promote industrial added value increased. However, because the market in the world except the United States NASDAQ and AIM market in the UK, almost no success stories
14, you think the Chinese economy in the first quarter of operation, we should look at how the scientific and rational? Future pay attention to what data, concerns what the problem?
A: If the Chinese economy is really recovering from the blood into a blood-type-type growth,UGG boots cheap, then the fiscal balance of payments and economic growth of credit than the scale of increase in electricity consumption and other indicators more releases useful information.
Conclusion:
Indeed, the Chinese economy today is the need to pass the system of government innovation and reform, so that more dynamic entrepreneurs to enhance their own competitiveness, to find the next broad development, through their own profit growth to boost the living standards of a large number of improvements in the labor force to form and promote sustainable economic development of their own health needs of the market hematopoietic mechanisms. So as to usher in a real recovery in the spring of China's economy! Simple talk about yesterday's macroeconomic data released yesterday
the first quarter of macroeconomic data, if there is anything contrary to my surprise, then the consumer. Generally speaking, last October to the November peak consumption data, the I However, the consumption rate of decline in the first quarter, is still beyond my expectations. Decline in general feeling is that too fast. Although compared with the same period last year,UGGs, a quarter consumption growth rate is also OK, but there is a problem so than.
Therefore, in the second quarter, the central one hand, the power should be placed on the implementation of 4 trillion, on the other hand should be to expand exports, but there is an important work to do, is to delay the consumption rate of decline, or consumption growth started to rebound. Consumption growth in the first quarter, some 15% points, compared to the rate in October last year to November 21% points of several of the growth, falling too fast. If consumption growth in the second quarter to further increase two to three percentage points, then the situation will be better. However, if the consumption decline further, then there will be eight this year's security problems.
In addition, yesterday announced the end of February the amount of U.S. debt China holds over 750 billion U.S. dollars, this is too high. Bad. The U.S. was too overbearing, China bought so much of his debt, the last one did not find him to China for manipulating its currency. Ha ha.
Sometimes, dealing with rogue can not be too honest. Recently, frequent warnings of market risk management
Sina Financial News ample liquidity and the favorable policies of the stimulus, the recent strong stock market performance, investment in heat and gradually warming the SME board, together with the GEM market is about to open, venture capital stocks are also set off a speculation boom. Recently, the management issued a document frequently to remind investors of the risks of the concept of speculation and market risks. Among them, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said the loans should be a thorough investigation to prevent the flow of speculative stock market, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is the text to remind the three bursts of risk.
CBRC: focus on examination of the flow of anti-speculation in the stock market loans
although in a CBRC Chairman Liu held on April 15 the first quarter of 2009 briefing emphasized that economic and financial situation, the banking financial institutions should fully understand the impact of the crisis long-term, highly concerned about the risk of bank lending under the impulse of the accumulation of risks, to prevent imprudent behavior.
According to media reports, the China Banking Regulatory Commission will soon announce new regulations for loans to implement more refined flow management, to oversee the flow of credit funds to prevent the illegal diversion, to ensure that funds are not used for speculative stock market.
three bursts of text to remind the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the risk
With the upcoming launch of the GEM, set off a wave of venture capital stocks boom, April 9, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Investor Education published What kind of investors for investment in the Growth Enterprise Market
few days later, on April 14, the second time the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a document, the article title is must be alert to remind investors that The warning for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, some investors do not seem to buy it, claiming
4 17, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange re-released time but also to rational analysis, do your homework.
a clear understanding of the concept of the risk of speculation
abundant liquidity is conducive to market stability Week Review: Large Market Opportunity at greater risk of mad
Shanghai market can clearly see the weekly out this week, the market turnover in October 2007 the amount of days since, a record trading volume is the third record. Such a large transaction and handover, on the one hand shows the active floor trading, but also shows the short to see more funds are great, the market is deeply divided and in the long and short game can reflect the state of a volume. Market prices and long-term sustainability of what? This is as out of the market within the macro must think about a problem. As long as the trend is not reversed
re-take the wave to hit a new high in the market, are called rally. Rally in the history of the trading volume before the end of the time were 3-5 times the starting point, this market price, although not entirely the choice of artificial market, but can still look at the changes in volume, so do the hearts of There are several.
this end, in order to more accurately reflect market transactions, we will be the lowest point of 1664 points in this location before and after the five-week sum of the Shanghai market turnover, approximately 1.0139 trillion yuan, divided by 5 to get The average weekly turnover of 202.78 billion yuan, will be multiplied by the turnover of this 3-5 start, end rally could be the week when the turnover 6083.4-10139 billion. Turnover was 869.8 billion yuan this week, on a turnover of close to rebound step region, the amount of days that the market has entered the level.
observe the performance of many stocks, the market has clearly into the crazy period of sudden death in order to market is not realistic, after all, there are inertial impact, a process needed to turn potential. Some stocks can be seen every day at every turn to pull even continuous exposure limit-pull, but only to insist on holding the venue to provide a return on the huge profits, others outside the huge risks involved. It is precisely because there's these huge profits every opportunity to hook a lot of people have itching, but also inspired a lot of people chasing the guts. As everyone knows, the market or individual stocks are in the frenzy of death, little attention will fall into their trap body.
the most pessimistic in the majority of the time admission, in most people choose to leave the most crazy time, history has proven this is the most accurate in the operation of China's stock market thinking,UGG bailey button, and now is the market is the most crazy period, continue to not buy out without style, this market will undoubtedly lay the basis for a winner, especially those who have significant or serious surge in the shipment of stocks.
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